Risks & Opportunities
The second Trump Administration will achieve more than most for two reasons. First, it will be populated by experienced operatives who learned valuable lessons of how to effect change from the first Trump presidency. Second, Trump does not have to worry about how his actions might affect his re-election because he will never run again. Trump will challenge conventional wisdom on a daily basis. He will scrutinize regulations that cost the private sector $3 trillion annually. He will cut taxes. He will impose tariffs to protect favored industries. He will deport up to 3 million illegal aliens. And he will unnerve foreign allies and foes alikr using more sticks and fewer carrots than is customary. Political opportunity and risk especially are concentrated in these sectors:
Agriculture
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Immigration and trade problems will hurt the sector but offsetting subsidies are possible.
Chinese Exports and Imports
*Tariffs and export controls will dominate policymaking.
Defense
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Contractors may see lower profits if cost plus contracts ends.
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Cybersecurity could see greater funding.
Energy
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AI will consume 6% of U.S. electricity by 2030. Power production and transmission will spike.
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Domestic Oil and Gas Exploration and Production are headed toward records.
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Coal and Coal-fired Utilities will retire later.
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Wind and Solar buildouts will slow.
Financial Services
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Large Money Center Banks will benefit. Capital requirements will decline and mergers with smaller companies will be approved.
Health
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Medicaid Providers face cuts.
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Medicare Advantage providers will enjoy a boost in customers.
Infrastructure
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Road builders, aggregate miners, and engineering companies will see steady cash flow from Washington.
Tech and Industrials
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Social platforms will face GOP heightened scrutiny from the Administration and Congress.
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Uncertainty remains over whether all CHIPS Act subsidies will be handed out or cancelled. Protective tariffs may take their place.
Capitol Analysts Network addresses these and other industries. See archives for a sample past reports.